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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."